Indications within the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) point to a feisty national convention against the backdrop of the hard stance adopted by governors, ministers and senators over the control of structures within the party. Barring any last minute change of plans, the National Convention will hold on Saturday, June 23, 2018. Investigations by LEADERSHIP Sunday show that the conflict resolution mechanism within the party has not been effective following the spate of conflicts that trailed the congresses held at the ward, local government and state levels.

Checks revealed that the seeming disarray in the conflict resolution mechanisms of the party in the wake of the congresses might not augur well for the party ahead of the convention. So far, governors are up against federal lawmakers or members of the party’s National Working Committee (NWC) on  the one hand, while ministers and other party stakeholders have been locked in bitter tussle in states that are not controlled by the APC on the other. Consequently, the ward congresses were largely violent. Although the local government congresses were relatively less turbulent, the state congresses were marred by parallel elections. In some other states, the congresses did not hold as a result of court injunctions.

But the party, through its national publicity secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, has since warned that “the only congress recognised by the party is that conducted in accordance with the party’s constitution, which was organised by the congress committee charged by the party to organise such congress. “We therefore regard any so-called parallel congresses as exercise in futility and attempt to cause confusion in the party.
“We wish to reiterate that any party member who has any genuine grievances regarding the congresses should channel such through the Appeals Committee in their respective states.” But fresh indications within the party show that the grievances which culminated in the parallel congresses in most states have not been addressed decisively enough by the party leadership heading into the June 23 national convention.
The situation is further compounded by the uncertainty surrounding the reconciliation efforts of the party’s national leader and former Lagos State governor,  Bola Tinubu.

It was learnt that the intrigues that led to the delay in holding congresses as part of the build-up to the convention are yet to abate. Some state governors are said to be uncomfortable with some members of the NWC from their states and had wanted to weed them out through the convention beginning with the earlier congresses. The governors are suspicious of the NWC members who they feel might not be representing their interests well enough, amid a notion that they (NWC members)  may be working with rival interests to undermine second term ambitions, for those serving their first term in office, or the succession plans of those whose tenures will end by 2019.
On the other hand, the governors have also been consolidating their grip on party structures in the states where they have running battles with federal legislators who are bent on seizing the structures of the party. With the governors now included in the convention planning as well as former governors who are now senators, the move is meant to assuage fears that interests would not be jeopardised.
But allegations that some governors were not willing to hold any congress as they are trying to give automatic waivers and endorsements to present leaders presents another level of challenge.

The names of key political figures on the list, is an assurance that they would still be given not only the party leadership in their states but also the opportunity to control party structures and produce delegates that would attend the congresses and the national convention.
After several back-channel negotiations, the party’ national leadership released guidelines for the ward, local government and state congresses.With this, the battle line was drawn and the fallouts are still being experienced within the party and the polity as a whole, a development that has threatened to open the lid on the pent-up anger and internal struggle in the state chapters of the party nationwide.
Though the congresses are purely an APC affair, it has however taken a semblance of a make-or-mar contest among the power blocs at different layers within the leadership hierarchy, and the import of the congress and attendant intrigues do not elude the party faithful, especially in the state chapters of the party, where different forces seem poised for a battle to the finish.
This, on a larger scale, will have series of ripple effects on various levels of the party both at national and state levels as the party finally heads to the convention proper in June.
Some of the following states are expected to play a significant part in the June convention.

KANO STATE

The fight is between the Gandujiyya and Kwankwasiyya factions, as the two groups attempted to outdo each other  during the last local government election held in the state on the February 10. This fierce contest will last up to the convention when it will be clear who has the upper hand. During the last local government election, both the Kano State Independent Electoral Commission (KANSIEC) and the Kwankwasiyya faction sold forms to some party members interested in contesting for chairmanship and councillorship positions.  Despite the intervention of the national headquarters of the party, which led to the appointment of Yahaya Karaye, an engineer, as chairman of the party in the state, the Gandujiyya and Kwankwasiyya rivalry is still playing a significant role in the politics of Kano.  The forces at play may fight even dirtier at the convention ground.

OYO STATE

In Oyo State, the party is fragmented into three camps. At one level, there is a camp loyal to Governor Abiola Ajimobi, known as SENACO, another group is loyal to the former governor of the state, Alhaji Lam Adesina, known as Lamist Group, while the third group is loyal to the minister of communication, Adebayo Shittu. The May 12 local government election in the state was a source of discord. Many in the leadership of the party have condemned the imposition of candidates across the 33 LGAs of the state. The battle of wits is sure to play out during the convention.

IMO STATE

The case in Imo presents an interesting scenario. Stakeholders and key players in the state chapter of the party had since been gearing up for a showdown in party’s congresses and national convention. Governor Rochas Okorocha plans to impose his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, as his successor while some stakeholders are out to stop him.   The congresses will determine which of the contending forces has the upper hand in the fierce scramble for the soul of the party ahead of the governorship primary. What has been witnessed after this first round leaves little to the imagination as the state congresses begin. Aggrieved party members stormed the party’s National Secretariat in Abuja to argue that no congress held in Imo state, urging the Oyegun-led NWC to wade in.  If the congresses were meant to unite the party at the state, it has succeeded in separating them and the battle will be fought, probably, at the convention arena.

LAGOS STATE

In Lagos, alignment and re-alignment of forces are currently going on among party stalwarts, members and political caucuses. Even though it is an open secret that the national leader of the party, Bola Tinubu, still holds the aces as per the party’s machinery, there are moves, especially among those who are considered as “Abuja-based” and those of the legacy parties to strike deals capable of giving them some political mileage as things gradually unfold.  This state and her delegates will however play an important role in the election of key national officers of the party. It is a must-watch.

ADAMAWA STATE

In Adamawa State, it is the battle for the control of the party machinery between Governor Muhammadu Jibrila and a group led by former Governor Murtala Nyako. It will be interesting to see who blinks first, at the convention.

PLATEAU STATE

In Plateau State, the battle for the soul of the party is a straightforward fight between Governor Simon Lalong and the Minister of Sports, Solomon Dalung. The two have been trading words over who controls the party in the state. How this will affect the convention will be seen in the coming days.

BAUCHI STATE

In Bauchi, the feud between Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar and the state party leadership on the one hand and federal lawmakers and other aggrieved members of the party on the other has aggravated the situation ahead of the congresses.  Before the ward and local government congresses, Governor Abubakar held series of meetings with party delegates from all the 20 LGAs in the state, a move that many stakeholders saw as positioning himself to have a firm grip over the outcome far and above the “Abuja politicians”. With the deputy governor of the state resigning, the convention will be a melting pot for the supremacy battle. The convention will be final litmus test as the party moves to the all important convention ahead of the 2019 general elections. The state congresses presented a chance to make amends.
Efforts to get a reaction on the state of affairs in the party from the national publicity secretary, Malam Bolaji Abdullahi, were unsuccessful as he neither picked phone calls, nor replied text messages sent to him.
With the June 23 national convention fast approaching, the ruling APC seems not to have been able to resolve the internal crises that predated the party congresses in the states, not to talk of those that erupted from the last ward to state congresses.
It has little time yet to wave the magic wand and emerge as united front at the national convention.